Ocean Springs, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

562
FXUS64 KLIX 280448
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

It was a warm day across the region and there were some locations
that easily got above 108 but we also had the same regions mix out
efficiently and the heat index struggled to reach 105. However make
no mistake it was still a toasty day and with morning lows in those
areas only dropping into the mid 70s it is still somewhat an
oppressive environment. That said today and possibly tomorrow look
to be downright hot.

Main driver is that ridge which will sit right on top of the area
today. Mid lvl hghts could be higher than 598dm while LL temps
increase another degree or two. H85 temps will be around 20-22C
while h925 will range around 27-29C. This should easily mix down
into the mid and upper 90s across the area. The other notable thing
will be the boundary layer winds. High pressure at the sfc continues
to slide west and will be centered south of the mouth of the Sabine
River. This will lead to northerly winds in the boundary layer and
that can often lead to localized compressional heating, mainly
across coastal MS. While not explicitly carrying any 100s it would
not be a shock to see a few sites top out at the century mark this
afternoon.

With that what does that mean for heat headlines. Given the
afternoon temps are expected to a few degrees warmer than yesterday
there is a good chance that some locations will hit Extreme Heat
Warning criteria. If you have been paying attention the same area of
our CWA has been more oppressive than the rest of the CWA and that
is the areas between I 10 and 12 surrounding the lakes and the
immediate coast of MS. Those areas flirted with warning criteria
yesterday and with temps expected to be warmer today they should
have little problems seeing heat index readings around 113/114
possibly higher in a few spots. The bigger question is elsewhere.
Even with most locations likely a few degrees warmer today the more
interior sections of the CWA i.e. southwest MS and the FL parishes,
continue to mix out very efficiently and even today struggled to see
heat index readings abv 105. With the temperatures expected to be
warmer it should not be as difficult to see higher heat index
readings but much of that area and the immediate LA coast should
remain well below warning criteria.

Tuesday is a much more uncertain forecast. The ridge will still have
fairly decent influence over the area at least to start the day.
There are indications that temps could be every bit as hot on
Tuesday as they will be today. The problem is how fast convection
starts to move back in from the east. Like the last 2 weeks there
continues to be that one day where the battle is what comes first we
heat up and convection arrives late in the day or the convection
arrives during the midday of the day/early afternoon and slows down
the heating. Well that is the question again. Most of the guidance
suggest convection will hold off yet most of the models show the
deep tropical moisture associated with an easterly wave  moving in
really quick Tuesday. Convection has moved in faster than the
guidance has suggested the last 2 weeks and it feels like that is
likely to happen again. The NBm agrees with that and has fairly high
PoPs for Tuesday afternoon. Due to that uncertainty we have held off
on any heat headlines for Tuesday right now. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

After the first 2 days of the week fighting off the heat we move
back into a period of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement
overall but there are some minor differences. One group is a
little more bullish on rain and keeping the area slightly cooler
and while the other side still have convection just not as much
and is slightly warmer at the end of the week and into the
weekend.

The ridge that has been bringing the heat will be well west by
Wednesday now and we will see another easterly wave slide into the
north-central Gulf. In fact as mentioned earlier the moisture
associated with this wave will likely surge into the area about 12-
18 hours earlier. PWs quickly climb above 2" and likely above 2.25".
The increase in deep tropical moisture will help to cool the mid lvl
temps with h5 temps back below -5 and even -6C. Combine that with
the increase in lift associated with the wave and convection should
be more numerous. There is one problem for convection Wednesday and
that problem may be scattered to numerous convection overnight
Tuesday. If there is a decent bit of convection overnight this will
work over the atmosphere and leave a lot of convective debris and
cloud cover which could take quite a bit of the day to recover and
get convection to refire. That said there will be widespread rain it
may just occur earlier leading to more scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with broken to overcast skies.

The rest of the work week we will see daily bouts of scattered to
numerous storms. This may even continue through the weekend but this
is where the models begin to diverge on the mid lvl pattern. The
ridge that brought us out heat will be well to the west and could
even be nudging back towards the Pacific while L/W troughing may
setup across the northeastern US. This could help reinforce the
weakness over the Lower MS Valley this weekend actually providing
more of a weak trough in place. Prior to this weekend, deep tropical
moisture will remain in place and daily showers and thunderstorms
are expected. If we do see a little more of a reinforcement to the
weakness aloft we will continue to see decent coverage of storms
through the weekend. However, if the ridge to our east and southeast
builds in faster and the developing L/W trough doesn`t dig far
enough south we will likely see more Summer like scattered
convection with highs in the mid 90s. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions in place for all terminals and that will be the case
for at least the next 36 hours. If there is any convection tomorrow
it would be very isolated. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

High pressure at the sfc currently sitting just off the coast will
continue to slide west. This will lead to offshore flow developing
later today and continuing through Tuesday until a weak wave moves
across the Gulf coast Wednesday. Winds will increase a tad late
today as they become more northerly but should remain low enough to
keep form needing any headlines. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms will increase again late Tuesday, with the threat
continuing through the end of the week and into the weekend. /CAB/|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  94  75  96  76 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  94  75  96  76 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  95  78  96  80 /  20   0  10  10
GPT  93  77  98  79 /  20   0  10  20
PQL  94  75  98  77 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056-059-065>071-079-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>085.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB